UK AI Economic Impact Figure Revised After Google Report
The UK government’s long-promoted claim that artificial intelligence could add £400 billion to the economy has been clarified by AI minister Kanishka Narayan, who said the figure originated from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by the consultancy PF Global.
Narayan told Parliament that the government’s own projection for AI-driven growth by 2030 ranges from £55 billion to £140 billion, with a central estimate of £120 billion, and he described the estimate as “hugely uncertain.”
PF Global’s head of economics, Jonathan Dupont, explained that the disparity between the two numbers reflects differing assumptions about the speed of AI adoption, noting that the government’s model assumes a slower uptake than the consultancy’s 2023 model.
The £400 billion figure had been used by government departments and agencies for almost two years across two administrations, even after ministers had access to the lower estimate since at least November 2025. Skills England continued to publish the higher figure four months later.
Labour MP Dame Chi Onwurah, chair of the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, warned that overstating AI benefits could undermine public-service digital transformation, calling for realistic expectations and transparency.
Conservative peer Lord Holmes of Richmond, who previously queried the origin of the £400 billion claim, said the adjustment was “significant and rightly adjusted” and stressed the importance of robust data for public-funded AI initiatives.
Commentators such as Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute highlighted concerns about industry-funded research influencing policy, urging independent studies and careful scrutiny of assumptions behind economic forecasts.
PF Global confirmed that while its work for Google continues, the research was independent and based on its own judgments and assumptions.
Why it matters
Accurate AI economic forecasts are crucial for policymakers, investors, and businesses planning UK AI strategies.
FAQ
Where did the £400 billion AI boost figure come from?
It was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by PF Global.
What is the UK government’s current estimate for AI’s contribution to the economy by 2030?
The estimate ranges from £55 billion to £140 billion, with a central figure of £120 billion.
Why do the two estimates differ?
PF Global says the difference is due to the government’s slower assumed rate of AI adoption compared with the consultancy’s model.
What concerns have been raised about the original £400 billion claim?
Critics say the figure may constitute hype, risk undermining digital transformation, and highlight the need for transparent, independent research.
Source: WIRED AI. See the original source for full details.
Scan with your phone
Scan with your phone